$30 billion home loan time bomb set for 2010

Thousands of Bay Area homes have a ticking time bomb embedded in their mortgage. The homes were purchased with loans known as option ARMs, short for adjustable rate mortgages.

Next year, many option ARM payments will begin to readjust, slamming borrowers with dramatically higher monthly mortgage bills. Analysts say that could unleash the next big wave of foreclosures - and home-loan data show that the risky loans were heavily used in the Bay Area.

From 2004 to 2008, "one in five people who took out a mortgage loan (for both purchases and refinancing) in the San Francisco metropolitan region (San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin and San Mateo counties) got an option ARM," said Bob Visini, senior director of marketing in San Francisco at First American CoreLogic, a mortgage research firm. "That's more than twice the national average.

"People think option ARMs (will be) a national crisis," he said. "That's not really true. It's just in higher-cost areas like California where you see their prevalence."

Of the 10 metro areas nationwide with the most option ARMs, three are in the Bay Area, according to Fitch Ratings, a New York research firm. They are the East Bay counties of Alameda and Contra Costa, the South Bay area of Santa Clara and San Benito counties, and the counties of San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo.

Together, these areas account for the second-most option ARMs in the country, although they are still far behind the greater Los Angeles area (including Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino and Orange counties), according to Fitch data.

Understated data
First American shows more than 54,000 option ARMs issued here with a value of about $30.9 billion. Fitch shows more than 47,000 option ARMs here with a value of about $28 billion. Both say their data underestimate the totals.

Why are so many option ARMs clustered here?

"In markets where home prices were going up rapidly, more and more borrowers needed a product like this to afford something," said Alla Sirotic, senior director at Fitch Ratings. Option ARMs were designed for savvy real estate investors and people whose income fluctuates, such as those paid on commission. Instead, the loans became a tool for regular people to "stretch" to buy homes that were beyond their means.

That's because option ARMs let borrowers choose to make very low payments for the first five years. During that initial period, borrowers can pick their payment option - they can pay interest and principal, interest only, or a minimum monthly payment that doesn't even cover the interest.

Fitch said 94 percent of borrowers elected to make minimum payments only. The shortfall gets added to their loan balance, which is called negative amortization. The amount they owe can grow substantially.

The mortgages 'recast'
After five years, or once the loan balance reaches a certain threshold above the original balance, the mortgages "recast" and borrowers must make full principal and interest payments spread over the loan's remaining life. Fitch said that new payments average 63 percent higher than the minimum payments, but could be more than double in some cases.

"When option ARMs recast, the payment shock is much more intense than we've seen (with other types of loans, such as subprime)," said Maeve Elise Brown, executive director of Housing and Economic Rights Advocates in Oakland, a consumer advocacy group. "That makes them potentially much more damaging.

To read the original article click here

Other articles of interest...
Lennar posts wider loss in Q3, but market improves
Lennar loses $172 million in fiscal third quarter, but sees housing market improving
IRS extends amnesty program for tax cheats
IRS extends amnesty program for international tax cheats to accommodate rush of applicants
The ARE trying to kick the bad mortgages down the road, here's proof!
Housing Suffering Relapse Confronts Bernanke Credit Conundrum
The recovering housing market may be heading for a relapse as President Barack Obama and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke consider ending support for the source of the global financial crisis.